I made a bet with Jai Dhyani about the outcome of the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primaries. In Jai’s words:
You get $10 if Sanders gets more than 45% in both NV and SC, I get $10 otherwise.
My reasoning: Sanders has been polling way behind in these states, but the available polls are quite stale–all the ones I can find were conducted before the Iowa caucuses. Sanders’ near-win in Iowa and landslide win in New Hampshire are getting him a ton of favorable media coverage, along with an inpouring of donations he’ll use to campaign aggressively in the next states.