Trump bet

I have just bet Jeff Kaufman my $35 against his $280 that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. I’m mostly making this post so we can remember the terms we agreed to next year, but for those who are curious about my reasoning:

Trump is leading in the polls, but most people are just sort of assuming he’ll go the way of Herman Cain eventually. However, as time goes on, this analogy looks shakier to me. Paul Krugman has thoughts here and here. Also, I suspect that people living in “blue” parts of the US, and in western Europe (like the bookie site I linked to on the Facebook thread), tend to underestimate the ugliness of the Republican base’s id.

Update: After posting this, my friend Rolf Andreassen agreed to go in for another $200 against my $25. $40 of my money is still up for grabs!


11 thoughts on “Trump bet

  1. I don’t know to what extent you aim to maintain pseudonymity with this blog. But if you are aiming to be careful, you may want to remove the facebook link.


    • Um, “Topher Hallquist,” the name in this URL, is the same name I use on Facebook and the name my coworkers know me by. I don’t know what you thought I was going for.


  2. He has two main advantages over the normal one-month-kings we see in these things.

    1. He has his own money, and lots of it, so he can probably keep at it as long as he wants, even if the RNC hates him, and he doesn’t have to listen to loudmouth billionaires, because he is one.
    2. He’s been a public figure for decades, so probably most of the stuff that brings down your Herman Cains and whatnot, came out about Trump years ago.

    I don’t think he’s going to win the nomination– IMO if it even looks like a possibility, the RNC WILL figure out some convention shenanigans to prevent it. Best case for him is that whenever it becomes clear he can’t win the nomination, he just Perots it into an independent bid. He might even win a state or two. (My money is on Oklahoma or Wyoming. Maybe Arizona?)


  3. I’ll give you better odds on your last $40 – I’ll put up $360 against. Send me an e-mail if interested. (I would prefer the money get sent directly to the charity of my choice when… er, if I win.)


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