I have just bet Jeff Kaufman my $35 against his $280 that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. I’m mostly making this post so we can remember the terms we agreed to next year, but for those who are curious about my reasoning:
Trump is leading in the polls, but most people are just sort of assuming he’ll go the way of Herman Cain eventually. However, as time goes on, this analogy looks shakier to me. Paul Krugman has thoughts here and here. Also, I suspect that people living in “blue” parts of the US, and in western Europe (like the bookie site I linked to on the Facebook thread), tend to underestimate the ugliness of the Republican base’s id.
Update: After posting this, my friend Rolf Andreassen agreed to go in for another $200 against my $25. $40 of my money is still up for grabs!